In the opening weeks of the year, billionaire Elon Musk helped President Donald Trump abruptly change the federal government, but he has learned he can’t change the laws of political gravity.

Musk and his affiliated groups put $21 million into flipping the Wisconsin Supreme Court to conservative control. Republican candidates ended up being defeated by 10 percentage points on Tuesday.

The losing margin was four points greater than that of the only other Republican on the same statewide ballot, who was not involved with Musk’s money.

The Democrats’ educated coalition has turned out heavily in relatively obscure elections such as the Wisconsin one during the Trump era. Republicans had long been pessimistic about their odds of picking up the seat because of this.

Musk dove into Wisconsin using some of the tactics he employed to help get Trump elected in November with more than $200 million in spending.

He helped make the race the most expensive judicial contest on record. It ended almost the same way as prior, double-digit loss by conservatives during a court race in 2023. It produced a high turnout for an April election.

“At most, this outcome shifted one percentage point,” said Charles Franklin, a law professor and pollster at Marquette University in Milwaukee. “It puts in perspective this idea that everything that Trump is doing is going to be just fine in November.”

The Dane County judge, Susan Crawford, who won Tuesday’s race, and Democrats made Musk the focus of their arguments for preserving liberals’ 4-3 court majority after a separate liberal justice retired.

“Today, Wisconsinites fended off an unprecedented attack on our democracy, our fair elections, and our Supreme Court,” Crawford said in her Tuesday night victory speech. “And Wisconsin stood up and said loudly that justice does not have a price, our courts are not for sale.”

The first major test of the political impact of Musk was the race. His prominence in President Donald Trump’s administration has skyrocketed with his cost-cutting initiative that has slashed federal agencies.

Musk has defied political precedent and, legal experts argue, the Constitution, by gutting congressionally authorized programs and agencies while drawing only muted opposition from the Republicans who control Congress.

Trump has methodically taken steps to expand his authority. He also uses the power of the federal government against his critics.

Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist at Dartmouth College stated, “The way Trump has signaled out individuals and institutions has prevented coordination of people in opposition to him.”

Wisconsin’s narrowing margins and result during special elections in GOP-held congressional seats in Florida may be changing that.

Nyhan said, “It looks like the electoral playing field is tilting against Republicans quite dramatically.”

As the Wisconsin race turned into a proxy fight over national political issues, Trump endorsed conservative Brad Schimel. The state’s high court can rule on cases involving voting rights and redistricting in a state likely to be at the center of both next year’s midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race.

Musk’s involvement dialed those dynamics, “A seemingly small election could determine the fate of Western civilization,” the billionaire said in a last-ditch call to voters on his social media site X. “I think it matters for the future of the world.”

According to the non-partisan Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, the super PAC backed by Musk, America PAC, spent at least $6 million on vendors who sent door-to-door canvassers across the state. It was a reprise of what the group did last fall across the seven most competitive presidential battleground states, including Wisconsin, which were carried by Trump.

Musk’s loss in the court race wasn’t solely due to the overwhelming Democratic support in heavy blue cities such as Madison and Milwaukee. In places where the Musk-backed group America PAC had been active, Crawford’s margins were higher. That included Sauk County, which is just north of Madison. Crawford was carrying Sauk County by 10 points after Trump won it by less than 2 points in November.

Musk headlined a campaign rally in Green Bay with 2,000 people on Sunday. Brown County was won by Trump, and it includes the city, by 7 percentage points last year. On Tuesday, it went for Crawford.

Musk posted on X, “The long con of the left is corruption of the judiciary.” He contended he always expected to lose in another comment but argued that “there is value to losing a piece for positional gain.”

Musk’s decision to go all-in on the contest was questioned by some Republicans, especially since political insiders of both parties expected the GOP to lose the contest.

GOP strategist referred to the town hall Musk headlined in Green Bay and said, “If the chances are it’s going to go against you, is it wise to insert yourself as a central player and do rallies in the last couple days, further signifying that point?”

Musk was in the minds of voters.

Kenneth Gifford, a 22-year-old Milwaukee college student stated, “There’s an insane situation going on with the Trump administration, and it feels like Elon Musk is trying to buy votes.”

68-year-old, Jim Seeger, who previously worked in communications and marketing, said he voted for Schimel because he wants Republicans to maintain their outsized majority in Wisconsin’s congressional delegation, which will be at risk if the liberal majority on the court orders the maps redrawn. He was disappointed the election had become a “financial race.”

“I think it’s a shame that we have to spend this much money, especially on a judicial race,” Seeger said as he voted in Eau Claire.

Musk paid three individual voters $1 million each for signing a petition in an effort to goose turnout, in addition to his political contributions. Democrat Josh Kaul, who is the Wisconsin Attorney General, sued to bar Musk from making the payments, but the state Supreme Court unanimously declined to rule on the case over a technicality.

Anyone who signed up on his group’s site to knock on doors for Schimel and post a photo of themselves as proof, was offered $20 by Musk. Every voter who signed the petition against ‘activist judges’ was promised $100. The voter got another $100 for every signer they referred.

Democrats were happy to make Musk a lightning rod in the race.

Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler stated, “People do not want to see Elon Musk buying election after election after election.” “If it works here, he’s going to do it all over the country.”